Melon and Ruby Walsh© Photo Healy Racing
The Cheltenham Festival kicks off two weeks today when the curtain raiser is the eagerly awaited Skybet Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Punters and pundits are divided on the prospects of the ante-post favourite, the Joe and Marie Donnelly owned Melon.
Melon has been the talking horse of the festival since the autumn and was backed from 33/1 down to 12/1 before he ever jumped a hurdle in public.
His hurdles debut came at Leopardstown at the end of January when he was sent off 4/9 favourite for a weak Maiden Hurdle and duly obliged with a facile ten lengths victory.
Many have been quick to knock the performance, particularly after the recent defeat of the runner-up Broken Soul at Navan.
To my mind Broken Soul was ridden with more restraint in the Navan contest which was run on contrasting ground and this didn’t play to his strengths. Added to that he was hampered by a loose horse at a crucial stage and his finishing time was 35.5sec slower than he ran for the same distance at Leopardstown.
In the Leopardstown race Broken Soul set a fast gallop. Melon travelled strongly behind the leader and cruised into the lead entering the home straight, never coming off the bridle. His jumping was economical and fluent bar a slight mistake at the final flight which he guessed at. Ruby Walsh’s hardest task in the race was to hold on to Melon and it took him several furlongs to pull the gelding up after passing the winning post.
Trainer Willie Mullins said after the race: “He just went a bit long at the last and genuflected a little bit. He’d been showing me he’s a good horse for a long while. He did a nice gallop in the autumn and I was afraid to do any more with him. We just waited and waited until he came right, and he’s right now at the right time.
“He lacks a bit of experience for his next run but we’ll have to try and give him that at home. It will possibly be in the first race (at Cheltenham) in March. We have plenty of experience into him, and I thought for a horse having his first run he jumped very well except for the last.
“He’s improving all the time as he gets fitter and stronger. I thought he looked very well today. Broken Soul made sure there was no hiding place for any horse and even at that good gallop Ruby looked under pressure to hold him. Once he’s upped in grade they will be going a step faster, and he will be easier ridden at that stage.”
Another perceived negative for Melon is that he has only run once over hurdles and in fairness you have to go a long way back in the ‘stats’ to find a horse with a similar profile winning the Supreme.
That said it is rare for a horse to go for the race with only one hurdles run so it may not be a particularly negative approach, just an unusual one.
At yesterday’s press morning at Mullins’ yard the trainer said of Melon: “He has plenty of ability, jumps well but lacks experience. He is a fine, tall, strong horse and seems a natural jumper. Ruby will have a choice to make in that race (stable likely to have five runners in Supreme) but we’re looking at what Melon does at home every morning so I’d say it will be an easy enough decision for him.”
In opposition to Melon at Cheltenham he will obviously face a number of lesser stablemates but his chief threats will come from a pair of previous Champion Bumper winners at the Festival — Moon Racer and Ballyandy.
The Cheltenham Bumper is a notoriously tough race for young horses and often leaves a lasting mark on the winners. Cue Card, one of the favourites for this year’s Gold Cup, won the race as a 4-y-o but was beaten in the Supreme the following season.
Moon Racer missed a year after his Festival Bumper success in 2015. Now as an 8-y-o he is easy to criticize on a stats front as only two horses of the same age have won in the last 78 renewals of this race. Coincidently one of them, Sondrio 1989, was trained out of the same yard.
Ballyandy has also seen a dip in fortunes since his Festival success twelve months ago. He was beaten narrowly on his first two hurdle outings by Moon Racer and then connections took the logical step to move him up in distance at Sandown in December but this again resulted in a narrow defeat.
His most recent run saw him finally get off the mark over flights when winning a very competitive handicap back over the minimum distance of two miles at Newbury.
There appears to be little to separate Moon Racer and Ballyandy so if Melon beats one he is likely to beat both of them.
Willie Mullins has had a testing season. Firstly the loss of 60 Gigginstown Stud horses and then a catalogue of mishaps to high-profile contenders for Chetlenham honours. That said he is still the go-to man for Festival winners and particularly for the race in question the Supreme Novices Hurdle.
Only for the mighty Altior last year Mullins would be seeking an incredible fifth straight success in the race with Melon this time around. Wins for Champagne Fever (2013), Vautour (2014) and Douvan (2015) were followed by a runner-up berth for Min twelve months ago.
Melon is also going to have the assistance of the Ruby Walsh in the saddle. Any inexperience on the horse’s part is more than compensated for with the talents of Walsh.
Current odds of 4/1 (with a run) about Melon will probably be exceeded on the day of the race as bookmakers fall over each other trying to get punters betting with them on the first race of the Festival. So the best advice is probably to hold fire until the day of the race or if like me you have already taken the plunge just keep fingers and toes crossed for another two weeks.
