Next Big Thing

Racing loves the Next Big Thing. There are few things more seductive than the emergence of a potentially outstanding new talent. That many fail to live up to such billing doesn't dilute the excitement. That the sense of expectation around potential is often unfair doesn't matter either: if there's a bandwagon to jump on there's never a shortage of jumpers. All the cautious qualifications in the world however can't prevent many believing Jack Kennedy could be just such an 'NBT.'

The bandwagon bit is undeniable considering the young Kerry jockey has just had a high-profile 147-1 Navan treble which included a first ever win over fences in no less a contest than the Troytown. He has had seven winners in seven days, across the flat, hurdles and fences. As for potential he is just 16 which by definition make excessive claims ridiculous yet still won't stop plenty being made.

Lots of talented kids have been down this road before and failed to kick on but Kennedy looks to have a chance, and in a game as ruthless as racing a chance is all one can reasonably ask for.

What's encouraging is that some of those who know the pony circuit well aren't surprised in the slightest with the teenager's progress. He looked an exceptional prospect in flaps. He is also with perhaps the most upwardly mobile trainer in the country in Gordon Elliott and that two of his Navan hat-trick are owned by Gigginstown and JP McManus is hardly going to harm him either. But sometimes you have to simply trust the evidence of your eyes.

Prince Of Scars brought up Kennedy's Navan hat-trick and it looked an exceptional ride to get a three mile handicap hurdle topweight with a noticeably awkward head carriage home by a nose. There was an assurance there that admittedly came on the back of the biggest success of his career on Riverside City but which nevertheless those in-the-know insist is no one-off.

What Kennedy has now is momentum and in such a faddish sport that's important. He's also a 5lb claim which is just as important since it almost looks unfair. That the hype train is steaming up - and those of us who should know better are busy shovelling on coal - is unfair too, but neither is it the hardest obstacle in the way of a young jockey continuing to make the most of what looks a rare talent. His progress this winter will be fascinating.

The question of prizemoney for racing's top prizes is always good for a row with those actually involved in those races not unnaturally claiming it is vitally important while those at the other end of the food-chain are equally vehement it diverts resources from the majority in order to further reward an already flush minority.

To those of us peering in from the outside it can often seem any difference is merely in scale: either side of that ownership divide and it's long odds-on the cost of your equine investment won't be deciding whether or not the mortgage payment is made next week.

But if the turn out for Haydock's Betfair Chase - the first leg of a Triple Crown bonus - indicated anything it is that even the chance of a million quid is irrelevant to those already forking out millions in order to assemble the best steeplechase talent.

Even the Coneygree camp, acclaimed as flying the flag for racing's 'minnows' passed up. Not one on the long list of potential Gold Cup challengers in Ireland was tempted across. So logically the cold reality is that even a cool million is mostly irrelevant to most of those lucky enough to own a Gold Cup contender, those same owners who often argue how vital prizemoney is to their involvement.

A complicating factor to the prizemoney debate on the flat is how the value of a pattern success often dwarfs the actual financial value of the race itself. That's why the preservation of Group status can become a very big deal indeed to industry players as we've seen recently with the threat to the Curragh's Tattersalls Gold Cup.

There are different prestige priorities over jumps although there will be widespread hope that this Sunday's Hatton's Grace Hurdle, the traditional centrepiece of Fairyhouse's 'Winter Festival,' lives up to its Grade 1 billing.

In the four renewals since Hurricane Fly won it in 2010, Jezki's 2013 triumph has been a notable standout in terms of lustre. But the original concept that the race would be the headline act on a luminous triple-Grade 1 card has looked dubious more than once, both in terms of headline horses and in terms of field-size.

The latter element is a very inexact measure of the merits any race. Small fields are often the reality at the top end of Ireland's jumps game. But in pattern terms if there's another small turnout this weekend, and Annie Power's absence has already robbed it of some star quality, the ratings tot for the Hatton's Grace could prove interesting.

The parameters for National Hunt Grade 1's are different from the flat. An average rating of 155 is required from the four top rated horses that run, judged on figures in the end-of-season Anglo-Irish Classification. The average system is understandably different from the flat because of fallers and 'ur's' and pulled-ups.

Whatever way you look at it though Voler La Vedette beating Mourad and The Real Article, or Zaidpouor winning a year later, or Lieutenant Colonel getting the better for Jetson and Little King Robin last season, makes it look like that 155 average isn't getting cleared with much to spare.

And finally, politicians, you gotta love 'em. Some of our political masters have become exercised by the issue of harness racing, forcing HRI into appearing before them to explain why they might be less than enthusiastic about the idea of trotters getting a slice of the state trough. So job done from the politico's point of view: they mightn't know a sulky from a saddle but they're seen to get tough.

Now it's up racing's brass to go to the Dail and get what they want without being seen to get what they want since logically why shouldn't the sulky squad get a slice. It will be no 'NBT' but an interesting Next Little Thing nonetheless.