Factor For Morons

Once again English high society steps out at Royal Ascot this week and if you want to examine the irrelevance of the actual racing to most of them then replay the movie 'My Fair Lady' and see their perfect representation as motionless mannequins looking just bored. It's fun from an Irish viewpoint to take the mickey out of something so fantastic. Except this time it's going to be pretty harmless stuff compared to some of the nasty reality surrounding it.

High level security and armed police isn't new to Royal Ascot. What's new is that it won't be primarily pointed at protecting the 'nobs' in the royal enclosure. Instead it's the relative riff-raff outside who apparently require the reassurance of being able to see cops juggling guns, patrol dogs and breathalysers before they even get into the track. There's even the chance of being body frisked.

Once inside they probably won't get close enough to pet a horse but can make do with petting sniffer dogs hanging around the bars and toilets although it might be an idea to have binned their drugs beforehand. There will be boxes available for that just as there will be reduced availability of alcohol since mobile beer-hawkers are a thing of the past.

It's quite something to see a day at the races in Britain turn into such a fraught exercise in containment. But it has become the sad reality. That's what happens when a presumption that everyone can behave themselves in public without fighting like animals turns out to be dispiritingly naive. And then there's the added salt of this idiocy being transmitted to the world within seconds.

So in the circumstances who wouldn't rather retreat to fantasy when faced with such ugliness. What was once an exercise in expensive froth is now a major security operation. It's hardly a one-off either. Racing used to turn its nose up at such football-style crudity. Now any track at Britain with ambitions of hosting any sort of significant crowd has to factor for morons.

It's different here, of course. The people who go racing in Ireland aren't hooligan types at all. Nobody gets plastered at the tracks here. Someone who knows their granny might recognise them. As for drugs, don't be silly. Irish people only like getting a little tipsy. But we're different from the Brits because we're Irish and can handle our drink.

No the sorts of scenes that blighted Goodwood and Ascot in recent weeks couldn't happen here at all, at all.

Except the tracks here that are commendably pushing the boat out to try and attract people through the gates are no different to those in Britain in not being able to pick and choose who to let in. And presuming there's some figurative social brake here that notionally prevents the likelihood of stupid booze-fuelled violence breaking out is simply wishful thinking.

The prospect of major meetings and festivals here turning into similarly fraught security operations as Britain is incredibly depressing. And there's encouragement in how major sporting events generally in Ireland don't require the sort of babysitting that seems necessary across the water. So maybe it really is different here.

But human nature knows no borders. It only requires one incident for that to become painfully obvious. So we might turn the dial down a little bit on smugly taking the mickey out of all the royal watching this week. When you consider what might be going on if the place wasn't in lockdown then it's pretty harmless stuff.

As for the actual racing itself it will be fascinating to examine how the rather muddled picture among the classic generation plays out. A consensus seems to be growing - probably added to by Laurens' narrow bunch-finish victory in the French Oaks - that 2018's top three year olds mightn't amount to a whole pile.

The real test of that will be when they start to clash regularly with older opposition. But if they keep taking turns beating each other it will be hard to argue with the consensus.

It certainly makes it dangerous getting too dogmatic about predictions but for what it's worth William Buick looks too big at 12-1 to be leading rider. Godolphin enjoyed a very good Royal Ascot in 2017 and appear to have plenty ammunition again. Plus if he lines up in the Hardwicke Crystal Ocean could be the bet of the week.

News that Godolphin will skip the Irish Derby and wait for the Eclipse with their Epsom hero Masar represents quite a blow for the Curragh. It means the only overseas trained Epsom winner to have tried for the Derby double in the last quarter of a century remains North Light. And he got beat in 2004.

It's easy to see the rationale behind Masar going to Sandown instead. As Charlie Appleby said a ten furlong Group One victory is ultimately more valuable in stud career terms than winning at the Curragh. And if Dee Ex Bee should travel and win instead it's a win-win all round for Sheikh Mohammed.

None of which will be much consolation to those concerned with the prestige of Irish racing's most valuable prize. Like it or not the kudos provided by getting the Epsom Derby winner to the Curragh will always be sorely lacked when they don't travel.

Last week at Punchestown trainer Eddie Cawley and jockey Chris Timmons got penalised under 'Non-Trier' rules over the running and riding of Fruits Of Glory in a Beginners Chase. And there's considerable sympathy for them on the basis that they're hardly part of the 'big guy' set and that the horse appears to be more than a little tricky. There's also the 'see worse every day' argument too.

But it's now 18 months since the tortuously amended Rule 212 was introduced which boils down to a requirement to be seen to try. And while not arguing with any of the 'little guy' sentiment or any of the rest of it, and without having seen the camera angles the stewards had available, it's still hard to credit how a run like Fruits Of Glory's isn't supposed to attract the attention of the stewards.

The rules require the appearance of some effort even if it's token. That obviously risks accusations of tokenism. But given the culture Rule 212 sprang out of that's a jibe easily tolerated. By now pleading ignorance of the requirements really doesn't fly.

Finally, more than one shrewd observer of the game in Ireland has opined that the greatest certainty of this season is that Donnacha O'Brien will be crowned champion jockey. The bookmakers certainly seem to think so since the 19 year old rider is 1-4 in the betting. That's going to have no one piling in but making the usual allowances for injury and suspensions it's hard to argue.

He's got the power of both his father and brother behind him, not to mention a sense of urgency considering the widespread presumption his weight will eventually catch up with him just as it did with Joseph. And if you're only going to ride for two yards then Ballydoyle and Piltown are the two to have!